Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 8.329320 9.827756 11.480118 13.432111 15.669488 18.148087 21.095857
2024-12-29 6.005512 7.920368 10.237601 13.226444 16.955189 21.427559 27.168907
2025-01-05 4.425695 6.424431 9.041927 12.673771 17.527668 23.729602 32.180947
2025-01-12 3.536473 5.577013 8.435484 12.651696 18.614735 26.633376 38.092288
2025-01-19 2.893040 4.917867 7.930790 12.620848 19.588042 29.375853 43.936471
2025-01-26 2.582846 4.683562 7.974402 13.334399 21.627894 33.704143 52.264394
2025-02-02 2.300722 4.433368 7.938331 13.890166 23.447310 37.820309 60.563133
2025-02-09 2.083341 4.247831 7.965893 14.524159 25.413205 42.268697 69.637207
2025-02-16 1.794830 3.880455 7.629669 14.503565 26.307602 45.113517 76.440457
2025-02-23 1.493330 3.430773 7.080090 14.038802 26.400075 46.667510 81.294974
2025-03-02 1.231134 3.007058 6.511911 13.459564 26.216834 47.724255 85.377425
2025-03-09 1.078227 2.781109 6.283004 13.463933 27.032699 50.461417 92.339915
2025-03-16 0.934549 2.552365 6.024821 13.398130 27.743810 53.121124 99.442789
2025-03-23 0.816312 2.358732 5.810769 13.392313 28.562708 56.024936 107.156132
2025-03-30 0.677422 2.084127 5.381002 12.893399 28.388412 57.141428 111.821121
2025-04-06 0.594356 1.933238 5.200971 12.889500 29.168372 60.023606 119.768929
2025-04-13 0.521401 1.792733 5.022449 12.863855 29.894078 62.841362 127.752362
2025-04-20 0.499284 1.791512 5.176172 13.591258 32.220037 68.815777 141.850130
2025-04-27 0.469821 1.762297 5.256164 14.156977 34.248758 74.336392 155.389059
2025-05-04 0.446150 1.745857 5.365877 14.801805 36.493167 80.402577 170.262052
2025-05-11 0.395735 1.632045 5.204536 14.780925 37.287658 83.650438 179.921122
2025-05-18 0.334599 1.465934 4.875270 14.308374 37.036179 84.776681 185.524777
2025-05-25 0.278497 1.300551 4.518669 13.719368 36.460185 85.188677 189.725583